Can Math Predict the Future?
Math predicts patterns, not certainties.
Prediction and its limits
By Peter Teoh, Science Writer
Math can forecast trends, but complex systems often resist long-term prediction. Tiny changes in starting conditions can lead to huge differences later.
Explainer: Models, uncertainty, and chaos
Focus: Weather models solve equations that describe fluid motion, but those equations are sensitive to initial measurements. Small errors grow quickly, limiting reliable forecasts to days.
In social and economic systems, human behavior adds more uncertainty. Math still helps by estimating probabilities, building scenarios, and showing which variables matter most.
Summary of Key Ideas:
- Prediction works best when systems are stable.
- Chaos amplifies tiny errors over time.
- Probabilistic models are often the best tool.
Side Notes
- The butterfly effect is a real property of nonlinear systems.
- Forecast skill improves with better data, not just better math.
Trending Sidebar
- Ensemble forecasting for hurricanes.
- Long-range climate modeling.
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